October 24th, 2008

Electoral College map Blue Shifts

Posted in 2008 Elections by ed

This NY Times electoral college map incorporates among other things current state polls nationwide.

The map this week evinced a strenthening Blue Shift:

Colorado went from Tossup to Leaning Obama.  And Missouri and Indiana (!?!) went from Leaning McPalin to Tossup.

The week before, Virginia had gone from Tossup to Leaning Obama.

And the week before that, North Carolina had gone from Leaning McPalin to Tossup, and Oregon from Leaning to Strongly Obama.

Obama is gauged to have 196 solid votes and 90 leaning.  270 are needed to win.

Six states are now gauged Tossups:  Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida.

Here’s a site where with a map upon which one can play with the state votes.  (Click and doubleclick on the states to change color.)

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  1. susan says:

    The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

    Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

    The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

    See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

    September 22nd, 2008 at 3:20 pm

  2. ed says:

    The states seem to be doing an end run (and good for them) around the federal constitutional roadblocks.

    Interesting. Cool.

    I’m proud of my native New Jersey.

    September 22nd, 2008 at 4:32 pm

  3. Ilidas says:

    Here’s to spreading democracy . . . right here in the U.S.A.

    September 24th, 2008 at 6:08 am

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