Attacking Iran question now mainstream
I gave up posting things about the possibility of attacks on Iran by the U.S. and/or Israel because after Bush’s speech of Jan 10 the worry came into the mainstream press.
The American sabre-rattling has gotten stronger in past weeks. And Saudi Arabia — since Cheney’s quasi-secret quick visit to the King in December — has come forward to lead regional animus against Iran. Nothing but sabre-rattling? to douse the Baker-Gates momentum of November and December (which was pissing all over the Bush policy in Iraq)? Or preparation indeed for the full-blown Clean Break war?
Last weeks also saw continuing if moderated spat between the Saudi ambassador in D.C. and the Saudi oil minister as to how much a barrel of oil should cost. Naimi (the oil man) has been brought into line with the soft price talk but the spectacle of their disagreement there for a three or four weeks surely clues everyone into what’s really going on. (Saudis talking oil down in support of impending war effort.)
The other Saudi initiatives/public addresses the past two weeks do support, it seems to me, the notion that what was cracked open in Mesopotamia when we invaded in 2003 was an all-out sunni-shia war, with Israel with the sunnis. It’s rare for Saudi Arabia to speak of such things. They are now loudly proclaiming their concern.
Speculation that the sudden concern in December to be nice to Palestinians in Israel had something to do with getting ducks in line for the larger war have now been voiced by many commentators. Appearances easy enough to paper there.
But Hezbollah in Lebanon seems nothing like under control (from Israel-US-Saudi pov). And what Syria would do, if the attack on Iran happens … The ducks are not in line yet.
And although oil is back over $60 a barrel this morning, there has been no sign of panic buying there; rather, it seems to have been a gentle rising within now-established trading range, supported by the arrival of something like winter in north america; traders seem to expect it to cycle back down toward 52 or so. Thus no forecasting there, it would seem, of imminent attack on Iran.
But, from this armchair, the best guess is yes, Israel or the US or both will strike Iran before October.
